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Will the Future be Good or Bad?

 Copyright © April 1, 2022 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All Rights Reserved.

Introduction

The first three months of the year 2022 have been very unusual.

A variety of significant world events have been reported in the news on a daily basis.

The purpose of this article is to examine a few of these events to determine how they might impact the lives of people everywhere.

Discussion

Gas and Diesel Fuel Prices: Fuel prices have increased by approximately 40% since the beginning of 2022.
However, several states have temporarily suspended their state's tax on fuel.
For example, the state of Georgia has suspended the state tax of 29 cents per gallon on gasoline and 33 cents per gallon on diesel until the end of May 2022.
In Georgia the price of gasoline has decreased by more than 29 cents per gallon because the fuel providers have lowered their prices by a little bit. Most people know that the fuel companies usually raise the price of fuel and leave it at that high price for a week or two. Then the fuel companies lower the price of fuel by a few cents to the price that they intend to maintain until the next price increase. This marketing strategy gives people the opportunity to talk about how "Gas prices are coming back down" instead of "Gas prices are way too high" and people simply accept the higher fuel price because it is a little lower than it was a few weeks ago.
Unfortunately, the increase in fuel prices worldwide is having a significant impact on all the following things:
    Fried Chicken
  1. Food Prices: Some food prices have not changed since the beginning of 2022.
    But other food prices have increased significantly.
    Consider the following three examples:
    a. Hershey's Kisses (35.8 oz. bag): The price jumped from $9.98 per bag to $10.98 per bag in one week. This is a 10% increase in price.
    b. Digiorno 12-inch Frozen Pizza (23.4 oz.): The price jumped from $5.00 per pizza to $5.98 per pizza in one week. This is a 20% increase in price.
    c. McDonald's Sausage Biscuit Breakfast Meal:
    • The price jumped from $3.15 to $4.09 in one week. This is a 30% increase in price.
    • The price jumped again from $4.09 to $5.34 in three weeks. This was an additional 30% increase in price.
    • In summary, the price of a McDonald's Sausage Breakfast Meal increased in price by 70% from $3.15 to $5.34 in four weeks.
    Each of the above price increases was about $1 more or less. Therefore many people may not have noticed these "small" price increases.
    If the above trends continue then how much will you be paying for food later this year? Will you even be able to afford food?

  2. Fertilizer: The amount of fertilizer available worldwide has been significantly reduced and the price of the fertilizer that is available has increased accordingly. This is going to result in less food being grown, and the price of the food that is grown will skyrocket. For example, on April 1, 2022 our local Walmart and our local Lowe's Home Improvement Store both currently have lots and lots of huge bags of top soil and bags of mulch chips for sale in their garden areas. But neither store has any bags of fertilizer for sale. And Walmart also doesn't have any bags of composted cow manure. But Lowe's does have some 40 pound bags of cow manure. Cow manure contains fertilizer ingredients at the rate of 0.5% and 0.5% and 0.5%. It would take 16 bags of cow manure to equal the weakest bag of fertilizer (8% and 8% and 8%). Unless this situation is corrected soon then the absence of fertilizer will seriously reduce the amount of food that can be grown this year by home gardeners. (Note: If you need some fertilizer and if you have the time to prepare then you may wish to read the following article on my website: "How to Convert Human Waste into a Safe Garden Compost Fertilizer.")

  3. Jobs: The current gas prices are forcing people who have to commute a reasonable distance back and forth to work to quit their jobs because they can't afford the gas. Companies everywhere are short staffed and this is resulting in additional supply chain problems everywhere.

  4. Real Estate Prices: The price of homes and apartments is rising faster than anyone believed possible. This is causing landlords to raise their rents and it is forcing some people out of their apartments because they can't afford the higher rent. Most homeowners will feel the impact of this inflation when their property taxes are due later this year. But some homeowners are feeling the price increase immediately because their monthly loan payment includes principle, interest, taxes, and insurance. The principle and interest payments are remaining fixed but the finance companies are increasing the total monthly payment in order to cover the increased property taxes and insurance on the homes due to the significantly inflated market value of the homes.

  5. Replacement Parts: Some replacement parts are still available for some vehicles, appliances, and industrial machinery. However, some replacement parts are not available and this is forcing people and companies to find an alternate solution. In most cases, the alternate solution is extremely expensive when compared to the cost of the replacement part if it had been available.

  6. New Products: Some new products work extremely well. But most new products have been intentionally designed to fail within 2 to 5 years in order to increase the sales of new products in the future. This decision was made by corporate executives but it was opposed by most engineers. Can you guess who won this debate? Some new products have chips and component parts that are defective and they are failing before 90 days have passed. And extended warranties do not help because the replacement parts are on backorder, and when they arrive the replacement parts have the same defects as the original parts and they will also fail before 90 days have passed. May I humbly suggest that if you have a car (or something else) that is still working correctly then please consider keeping it and please do not replace it with a newer model. Gas mileage (or miles per gallon or MPG) is important but gas mileage may not make any difference in the future if there is no gas for sale, or if gas cost $15.00 per gallon and you can't afford to drive your car more than once a month.

  7. Reduced Tax Revenues: Almost every state, county, city, and local municipality in the USA is currently having serious budget problems because of business closures and reduced tax revenues. Many of the local governments have ordered their police officers to give traffic tickets for everything, including exceeding the speed limit by 2 miles or more per hour. If you drive then please be aware of this because if you are like most of us then you probably can't afford to pay a traffic fine.
The Russia - Ukraine Conflict: This conflict has been in the works for a very long time.
    Russia
  1. Who is to Blame? The citizens in most nations worldwide have been trained to believe that the leaders of their country have the high moral ground in all disagreements. And they have been trained to believe that all the other countries in the world are creating the problems that we have to endure. Does this seem reasonable to you?

  2. Reasons for the Conflict: Each week we receive additional new information about some of the things that forced Russia to take its current actions against Ukraine. It a person were objective then that person might realize that Russia had been backed into a corner and that their only hope for their long-term survival was to stop the acts of economic aggression that were being silently but ruthlessly used against it. This does not condone the current conflict. But it does spread the blame for the conflict far beyond what most people currently understand.

  3. The Russian Ruble: New economic sanctions were recently imposed on Russia and Russia is currently prevented from using the international clearing house for payments between nations. Therefore Russia was forced to use its own internal clearing house for payments. Nations that wish to continue to buy things from Russia may pay in gold or in rubles. Russia has established a fixed price for gold in terms of rubles, and that price is approximately equal to $1,500 USA dollars per troy ounce of gold. Russia is not selling gold at this price but Russia is accepting gold at this price to pay for the things that other countries wish to buy from Russia. At the current time Russia provides a significant amount of gas to Europe, and Russia sells a significant amount of food to Europe. If Europe wishes to continue to buy gas and food from Russia then those countries will need to start paying Russia in either gold or rubles. What impact do you think this will have on the economic strength of Russia? This will be discussed in more detail in the next section about International Chess.

  4. Gold Reserves: Approximately 80 years ago several European nations transferred their gold to the Bank of England because those nations thought that their gold would be very safe in the vault at the Bank of England. However, several European nations are now asking for the return of their gold and the Bank of England is telling them there will be a delay and the Bank of England is not telling anyone how long that delay will be. Some European nations are now beginning to wonder if the Bank of England still has their gold. If the Bank of England does not produce the gold that they claim they have in their vaults, then many European nations may turn their anger away from Russia to the British and to the Bank of England. Is it possible that Russia knows something that the rest of the world doesn't know?
The International Chess Game: International diplomacy, and the lack thereof, can be compared to a chess game.
    Chessboard
  1. The King: If the king is defeated in a game of chess then the game is over. However, in international politics the king is the current leader of a country. The death of the king does not end the game because a new king immediately takes the place of the old king. Therefore the game continues.

  2. The Queen: Each player has one queen and the queen of each player is the most powerful game piece of that player on the chessboard. Let's assume that money is the "queen" in international politics. For about 100 years the USA dollar has been the reserve currency of the world. This means that most world contracts between nations are quoted in terms of dollars, and the contracts are paid in dollars through an international clearing house for payments between nations. This means the USA dollar is currently the most important currency in the world and every nation has to have some dollars in their international clearing account. One of the recent chess moves of the USA was to prevent Russia from using dollars to pay their bills and to prevent Russia from selling their stuff to other nations. The counter move by Russia was to establish gold or rubles as the currency they will accept in payment for their products in the future, such as gas and food. To safeguard their future, China is currently attempting to negotiate contracts for Middle East oil in terms of their yuan. Russia and China may accept Euros and convert the Euros into their rubles or yuan and this will allow nations to continue to do business in a reasonable way. If that happens then it may not be long before the current international clearing house for payments between nations becomes a relic of the past. If this happens then nations will not need to keep USA dollars in their bank accounts and they may liquidate their dollar holdings for whatever they can buy with dollars. The world markets will be flooded with dollars and it will take a significant amount of dollars to buy anything. If this happens then it will result in the end of the USA dollar as being the reserve currency of the world. And it may bankrupt the USA. In other words, the USA may have unwittingly puts its "queen" in mortal danger on the international chessboard. If the "queen" of the USA is removed from the chessboard then the USA will be in a seriously weakened position in world politics.

  3. The Knights:; Knights represent the military might of a nation. Due to the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, no nation has an advantage when it comes to the use of their knights. However, many nations are in serious financial trouble and they know that their "official published statistics" are a complete and total lie. If a war does not start soon then they may intentionally sabotage (or blow up) something inside their own borders and then place the blame on some foreign nation. This would allow them to avoid being held accountable when their economy meltsdown because they can blame another country for the collapse of their economy.

  4. The Bishops: Bishops represent the religious foundation of a nation. A nation that truly worships God Almighty has an advantage with their bishops. However, true worship is from the perspective of God Almighty and it not based on lip service or on other false forms of worship that is done for show. For example, stamping the words "In God We Trust" on USA minted coins does not impress God in the slightest. However, a person who lives his or her life based on "In God We Trust" is very pleasing to God.

  5. The Castles: Castles have traditionally been used to help defend a nation in times of war. At the current time the oceans that separate some nations from one another will not be as effective as they were in the past for preventing the spread of war from one continent to another continent on the far side of the ocean.

  6. The Pawns: We the common people are the pawns in the international game of chess. A pawn has limited mobility in the game of chess. However, we pawns do have brains and we can take some prudent actions immediately to help our families survive if the world continues to meltdown all around us.

Conclusion

The game of international chess will continue to unfold based on the moves that are made by the major players.

In my opinion, the USA may soon lose its "queen" and if that happens then people in the USA may witness some events that we never imagined would take place in our lifetimes.

If things continue to meltdown then the following suggestions may be reasonable strategies for the survival of some of us pawns.
  1. Food Reserve: Canned vegetables, canned beans, canned fruits, canned pasta, and canned meats have a very long shelf life and they are still available and affordable in many areas. Canned food does not need to be refrigerated and it will continue to be edible for several years even if you lose your electricity. On April 1, 2022 Walmart still has their "Great Value Brand" of canned foods available for sale at the following prices: vegetables = $0.54 per can, beans = $0.68 per can, pasta = $0.60 per can, fruit = $1.16 per can, and canned chicken breast = $7.98 for four cans. Spam is still $2.28 per can. It would be a shame if you missed this "opportunity of a lifetime" because canned foods may never be this cheap again. Also please remember to acquire a good quality stainless steel "manually operated" can opener.

  2. Self-Defense: In the USA, and in a variety of other countries, the law-abiding citizens still have the right to own firearms. If you have this right and you have not yet purchased a firearm and a reasonable supply of ammunition for that firearm, then you should seriously consider taking action on this issue immediately. Some suggestions for self-defense weapons, including firearms, are in the following article on my website: "Firearm Recommendations."

  3. Families: United we stand but divided we fall. Family members will need to reconcile their differences with one another. We will need to work together for the survival of everyone in our family. For many families this will mean that some of our family members will need to return to the "nest" and we will all need to live together in harmony. Whoever owns the "nest" has the right to make the rules. If a family member cannot abide by those rules then that family member will need to consider their other options. Some suggestions you may wish to consider are in the following article on my website: "Practical Suggestions That Can Help to Maintain Harmony with Long-Term House Guests."

    Cards
  4. Entertainment: If things continue to go downhill, and if you do not have a job, and if you are stuck at home for any reason (no gas or social rioting), then you will need to find something to occupy your free time. If you have digital games that you have purchased, and that you play on a personal computer, and if you have saved those games onto a USB flash drive, then you may be able to play those games on a variety of other personal computers if you have access to electricity. However, most people don't play games on a computer. Instead, almost everyone currently plays digital games on their mobile phone or their tablet. Unfortunately, if the internet is not working then you may discover that some of your games will eventually stop working even if you paid money for the game. The digital agreement that you approved when you first downloaded the game probably includes a clause that says that you must upgrade your game when a new version is available because your original digital game has a "digital expiration date" inside it that you are not aware of. This means that one day your digital game will just stop working and you will be outraged. Therefore it would probably be a good idea to have some games that are not digital games. For example, an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards can be used to play over 100 solitaire card games, and over 100 card games that require 2 or more people. If you have two decks of playing cards (with the same color backs) then you can significantly increase the number of card games you can play. The plastic coated playing cards will outlast the cheaper decks of playing cards and they are worth the extra money. The board games you played when you were a child would also be an excellent way for your family to pass the time when you don't have any chores to do. The following article on my website includes several board games that can be played on an ordinary checkerboard, and the article also includes a variety of games that you can play if you have your own game pawns: "Ancient Board Games and Solitaire Games From Around the World." May I suggest that you purchase two checker game sets and two chess game sets. This would give you 24 red checkers, 24 black checkers, 16 white pawns, and 16 black pawns. You would also have four checkerboards so that several different family members could be playing at the same time. Wood checkerboards are excellent. Cardboard bi-fold checkerboards are nice. The thinner 4-fold checkerboards are okay but they do not have the life expectancy as the better checkerboards. Having a reasonable selection of non-digital games can help your family avoid the problem of "cabin fever" if you are confined at home for long periods of time.

  5. Prayer: God is still in 100% control of everything. And God loves us pawns. If you don't already own a printed copy of the Holy Bible then please consider acquiring one immediately. Prayers are more effective if you will take the time to learn how to pray the way that God Almighty has revealed to us in the Holy Bible. I suggest any version of the Holy Bible that is accepted for use by a wide variety of Protestant religions. A few examples would be the King James Version, the New King James Version, the New International Version, the English Standard Version, and the American Standard Version. However, the Catholic bible, the Mormon bible, and the Jehovah's Witnesses bible are special interpretations of the bible and they are not recommended.
Even though I am just a pawn, I do not have to become part of a stampeding herd that is being intentionally guided so that they will run at full speed off the edge of a high cliff to meet their death on the rocks below. Even though I am just a pawn, I prefer to select a different fate for myself and for my family.

May God Bless,
Grandpappy.

Grandpappy's e-mail address is: RobertWayneAtkins@hotmail.com

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