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Russia and Ukraine:
What Will Russia Do Next?

 Copyright © May 2, 2022 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All Rights Reserved.

Introduction

Several weeks have passed since Russia and Ukraine first began exchanging gunfire back and forth across their common border.

And there have been a lot of conflicting news reports about what is actually happening on both sides of the border. The only thing that I have been able to determine based on the news reports from a lot of different countries, is that each and every news agency is significantly biased in favor of either Russia or Ukraine. The same exact event is being reported as a victory for either Russia or Ukraine depending on which news agency is reporting the story. Therefore I suspect that neither side is accomplishing anything of real significance at this particular time on the battlefield.

However, there have been several other non-military moves on the international chessboard that may have a significant long-term impact on the entire world. The purpose of this article is to take a look at a few of these other chess moves.

Discussion

Please allow me to begin by very clearly stating that I do not have any "insider" information about anything that is happening anywhere in the entire world, with the possible exception of what is happening to my extended family.

I am nothing more than an expendable pawn on the international chessboard and I have absolutely no idea what the major players are planning to do next.

The chessboard is the entire world. Each country or nation is just one small part of the big international chessboard. The ultimate objective is total world domination and this is usually achieved by conquering one country at a time (either by bloodshed or by bribing the leaders of a nation). This is not a new strategy. Many different empires have tried to conquer and control the entire known world for thousands of years using a variety of different strategies.

Although I am just a pawn, I do invest some of my time observing the international game of chess and the following comments are simply what I suspect may be the motives for some of the recent chess moves.
    Chessboard 1st Move
  1. The Ukraine/Russia Battlefield: At this time it appears that both sides are shooting at each other from their own side of the border. However, there are rumors that each side is making raids across the border but it is difficult to verify if this is actually happening because of the significant bias of the different news agencies that are spoon feeding us these stories. We pawns have no way to know whether or not these rumors are true or false even though these rumors are sometimes supported with some amazing pictures (which may or may not be true recent pictures).

  2. Military Strength: Most military experts have informed us that Russia has a significant arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. And most military experts have informed us that no nation on the face of the earth could survive if Russia unleased just a few of their weapons of mass destruction on that nation. Therefore Ukraine could be easily, quickly, and decisively defeated if Russia decided to attack them in earnest. If this is true, then could Russia be using this conflict as a catalyst and as a distraction to accomplish some of their other global objectives?

  3. The USA Dollar, the Euro, the Ruble, and Gold: In March Russia was barred from using the European International Clearing House for payments between nations to sell their gas, their food, their fertilizer, and their vodka. Therefore any nation that wishes to buy anything from Russia must use Russia's internal clearing house for payments and they may pay Russia in rubles or in gold. Therefore Russia no longer has any use for USA dollars. And any nation that wishes to buy something from Russia will soon realize that all the USA dollars that they have in their European International Clearing House account may only be of use to buy something from the USA. Does the USA actually make anything that they sell to other nations, except for their dollars and some food? (Note: If the USA farmers do not get the fertilizer they need then the USA may not have any food to sell in a few months.) In my opinion, Russia probably anticipated that the USA would deny them access to the European International Clearing House for payments between nations, and Russia probably celebrated when the USA made their fatal chess move of telling Russia they could no longer use USA dollars to buy and sell things. And Russia may have anticipated that some nations were going to request the return of their gold from the Bank of England and from the USA, and that both nations may experience some difficulty in returning that gold. If the Bank of England and the USA do not return the gold that was deposited with them for safekeeping, then what impact will this have on the reputations of these two nations worldwide?

  4. Fertilizer: Russia is the primary source of fertilizer for Europe and for many other nations. Since it is the spring planting season in most of Europe and in the USA, how will the lack of fertilizer impact our harvests beginning a few months from now? Could Russia have already included this knowledge in their planned future chess moves?

  5. Starvation: Both Russia and China have a very long history of using starvation to control their citizens. And both nations have extensive experience on how starvation can be used to accomplish a variety of their other goals. The citizens of Russia and China are accustomed to being denied food for one reason or another and therefore the citizens of both nations grow a reasonable amount of their own food, and they know how to prepare meals from scratch, and they know how to substitute other ingredients when a specific ingredient is not available. On the other hand, the citizens of Europe and the USA are not accustomed to being denied food for an extended period of time. If food becomes scarce a few months from now then how will the people of Europe and the people of the USA respond? Could worldwide food shortages have been anticipated by Russia before they began their conflict with Ukraine?

  6. The Impact of Food Shortages: When people are really, really hungry most of the time, then their behavior changes. Starving people spend most of their time thinking about food (how much they have, where they can get more, and if they can afford it). They also invest a lot of their daily will power in forcing themselves to not immediately eat the small amount of food they have in reserve because they know that they have to ration that food very slowly and very carefully or their family will die of starvation. They also lose interest in anything that is not directly related to food. But they pay very close attention to anything that is directly or indirectly related to food. Food occupies their thoughts when they are working, when they are trying to relax, and when they are talking to other people. Therefore any nation that uses starvation to control their citizens will usually not have any problems with their citizens because their citizens are too physically weak to oppose their leaders, and the people don't want to do anything that would endanger their next food ration (whatever that might be). Starvation also helps a nation automatically eliminate the weaker members of their society, and the older non-productive members of their society, because their bodies are not strong enough to endure the strain that prolonged starvation inflicts on their undernourished bodies.

  7. Sphere of Influence: Several nations that were previously closely aligned with Russia have not changed their relationship with Russia as a result of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict there were many countries who were politically neutral towards Russia but they were still buying a lot of stuff from Russia. However the USA's current influence over some of these countries is causing some of these countries to condemn the actions of Russia and to reduce or suspend their trading agreements with Russia. Russia does not mind if it takes a little time for the citizens of these nations to experience the reduction (or absence) of gas, food, and fertilizer on their standard of living. But Russia knows that eventually these nations will renew their trading agreements with Russia and they will pay Russia in either rubles or gold. This means that the USA's influence over these other nations may gradually weaken even though these other nations may still verbally support the USA. However, if the Bank of England and the USA do not return the gold that actually belongs to these other nations, then these other nation's verbal support of the British and the USA may turn into a public condemnation of these two countries. The end result could be that Russia's sphere of influence may significantly increase, and the sphere of influence of the British and the USA may significantly decrease. What impact do you suspect this may have on the citizens (pawns) of Britain and the USA?

  8. Wasted Money: The USA and several other nations are positioning some of their military assets in the region near the border of Russia and Ukraine. As long as Russia does not cross the border, or do something that would start World War III, then the USA and these other nations will be spending a lot of money to accomplish nothing. And each day that the USA and the other nations keep their military assets in that region then they will be wasting more and more money. Russia, on the other hand, has it military assets on their side of the border and Russia can easily resupply their troops at a reasonable cost. Could this be a well thought out chess move on the part of Russia to financially weaken the USA and these other nations? If the USA and the other nations withdraw their military assets from this region then what will this do to their reputation in the eyes of the world? In other words, regardless of what the USA and the other nations do at this time with their military assets, it will only weaken their position on the international chess board.

  9. Allies: In the past Russia and China have not been on friendly terms with one another. However, at the current time it appears that Russia and China may have some shared global objectives. And it may benefit both Russia and China if they do not interfere with what the other country is doing. And since China makes a significant amount of the stuff that is sold worldwide (including stuff sold to the USA), then having China as an ally is a very strong chess move for Russia on the international chess board.

  10. Effective Leadership: Regardless of whether any nation agrees with what Russia and China are currently doing, no nation can truthfully say that the leaders of either Russia or China are incompetent. On the other hand, how much respect do all the other nations around the world have for the current leader of the USA? Are the executive decisions of the USA currently being made by one leader, or are the executive decisions currently being made "behind closed doors" by a variety of other people who have conflicting goals? Is it possible that Russia clearly understands this issue and that Russia already knows what the USA's chess moves will be for a long time in the future? Is it possible that Russia doesn't care about the sequence in which the USA makes its future chess moves because Russia already has a planned countermove that will completely neutralize each future chess move that is made by the USA?

  11. Timing: Russia does not appear to be in a hurry to do anything. Russia appears to be content to simply move their troops up and down their side of the border near Ukraine. On the other hand, the USA and several other nations do appear to be in a hurry for World War III to start. Is it possible that the USA and these other nations desperately need a world war in order to significantly reduce their populations. And is it also possible that they want to use the war as a convenient scapegoat for the economic chaos that is about to cause the economic meltdown of their nations because they don't have any more tricks up their sleeves to postpone the meltdown much longer?

  12. Magic Tricks: A master illusionist knows how to easily distract his audience by waving one of his hands through the air and by looking intently at the hand he has in motion. Almost everyone in the audience will look at what the illusionist wants them to focus their attention on. This allows the illusionist to use his other hand, which appears to be almost motionless, to do what it needs to do in order to make the "magic trick" work. Is it possible that Russia is using their troop movements up and down their side of the border near Ukraine to distract everyone's attention while Russia patiently waits for all their other really important chess moves to have their desired effects?
If the above is true then it is highly unlikely that Russia will escalate their current military operations against Ukraine. Instead it is more likely that some other country will soon reach the end of their rope and they will see the early warning signs that an economic meltdown is beginning in their country. Therefore one or more of these countries (maybe Ukraine) may blow up something inside their own country (maybe an orphanage) and then blame it on Russia (or China or anybody except their own leaders). Immediately all the different news media around the world that are significantly biased against Russia will flood the world with "proof" that Russia (or China) did this horrible thing. This "proof" will give all the nations that are currently in serious financial trouble the excuse they need to support that poor defenseless country and to come to their aid by attacking Russia (or China or somebody else). However, this is probably just a silly theory and it will probably never happen. (Note: Do you remember the undamaged passports of the terrorist pilots that were found among the thousands and thousands of tons of the burned up debris of the New York Trade Center Towers?)

The Next Unthinkable Chess Move

Now that Russia has been able to successfully execute the chess moves that they originally planned, Russia has three basic options for proceeding with their conflict with Ukraine:
  1. Attack Ukraine more aggressively: Russia has very little to gain and a lot to lose if they escalate their conflict with Ukraine. Therefore this option may not be as attractive to Russia as one of the next two options.
  2. Stay on their own side of the border: Russia may continue to move their troops up and down their own side of their shared border with Ukraine but Russia will not send their troops across the border. This option would keep the world guessing as to what Russia will do next. It will also help Russia keep their soldiers from getting bored.
  3. Withdraw their troops from the border: If Russia withdraws their troops then it will be very difficult for any nation to start World War III, including Ukraine, without that nation becoming the villain in the eyes of the entire world for the next 100 years.
Russia has already made the following very significant chess moves on the international chessboard and therefore Russia does not need to escalate their conflict with Ukraine:
  1. They have established their own internal clearing house for payments for their gas, food, fertilizer, and other products. Therefore they can now do business with any nation that wishes to do business with them.
  2. Russia will now accept payment for their stuff in either rubles or gold. This has resulted in many nations asking the Bank of England and the USA to return the gold that legally belongs to them. What impact do you think this will have on the long-term price of gold? What impact do you think this will have if the gold is not returned to the nations who legally own the gold?
  3. The European International Clearing House for Payments Between Nations has been seriously weakened because they are no longer processing the cash flows into and out of Russia. If China is successful in their effort to create their own internal clearing house for payments using their yuan, then it will probably be just a matter of time before the European International Clearing House for Payments becomes an insignificant relic of the past.
  4. The USA dollar may soon lose its role as the Reserve Currency of the World. If this happens then nations will not need to keep USA dollars in their European International Clearing House accounts and those nations may flood the world with dollars in an effort to buy something of value before the USA dollar loses most of its purchasing power due to hyperinflation. Almost every nation clearly remembers the fate of the Zimbadwe dollar when Zimbadwe hyperinflated and every nation may try to protect itself from a repeat of that disaster with USA dollars.
  5. The political influence of the USA has been seriously weakened due to a variety of poor decisions the USA has recently made. This includes the election of a leader who is not respected by the rest of the world (except verbally). Therefore the political influence of the USA will probably continue to decline as time passes. Russia and China will both probably continue to increase their political influence worldwide because they both have stuff that the rest of the world wants to buy.
The future:
  1. Is it possible that the USA and several other nations (including Ukraine) are terrified that Russia might actually withdraw their troops from their shared border with Ukraine?
  2. Is it possible that some nations have already made plans to do something horrible and to place the blame on Russia or China?
  3. Is it possible that the movie "The Hunger Games" may become a reality in your neighborhood in the very near future?
In the game of international chess the winning moves are sometimes the moves that your opponent never anticipated. However, if a "false flag" event is executed and if the blame is placed on either Russia or China, then it is extremely likely that both Russia and China have already considered this possibility and they have a countermove already planned that would be of significant benefit to them.

Conclusion

Most people are patiently waiting for something significant to happen and then they will take whatever action that seems appropriate at that time.

However, is it possible that nothing really significant will happen? Is it possible that things may continue to degrade slowly but steadily and people will just continue to accept each new reduction in their standard of living as being the new "normal?"

Is it possible that the governments of the world, including the USA, have intentionally decided that they will allow the current food supply to be gradually used up? Is it possible that the governments of the world, including the USA, have intentionally restricted the flow of fertilizer to where it is desperately needed?

Is it possible that many world governments, including the USA, intentionally plan to use starvation to control us pawns? If the USA uses starvation to control us pawns, then how is the USA any different from a communist nation such as Russia or China? Will you believe the USA if they say that the food shortages were inevitable and there was absolutely nothing they could have done to prevent the food shortages and the mass starvation of us pawns?

In retrospect, most of us can still remember the aisle after aisle after aisle of empty grocery store shelves when the CV-19 "shelter in place" policy was first implemented. However, the next time this happens there is a good chance that the grocery store shelves in your area will not be restocked during your lifetime.

How will you feel if you and your family slowly starve to death and you realize that you could have done something to prevent it but you were too busy to take action when you could have easily done so?

May God Bless,
Grandpappy.

Grandpappy's e-mail address is: RobertWayneAtkins@hotmail.com

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